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The fact of a long Pause is an indication of the widening discrepancy between prediction and reality in the temperature record.

The satellite datasets are arguably less unreliable than other datasets in that they show the 1998 Great El Niño more clearly than all other datasets.

The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.

But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 18 years 9 months since February 1997, not a flicker of warming has resulted. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over-predict warming so grossly.

From next month on, the Pause will probably shorten dramatically and may disappear altogether for a time.